I checked the output of the HWS vs the expected thermal lens from the online simulation code. The results are posted below. As you can see the time series agree very well with each other, certainly within the error bars of the HWS measurement ... at least just looking in dataviewer. (I rescaled the time series from diopters into micro-diopters and reset the HWS value to match the SIM value at t=0).

The HWS measurement is double-passed through the lens and while the simulation predicts the single-pass value: hence a factor of 2 difference between them.

The HWSY data is extremely noisy and shows almost no correlation with the simluation data.