C. Cahillane

The first LHO total uncertainty budget is reported here for frequency range = 5-5000 Hz and GPSTime = 1167559936.

This uncertainty budget was produced in five stages:
1) Take measurements of sensing plant C(f) and actuation stages A_UIM(f), A_PUM(f), A_TST(f).
2) Run MCMC to fit calibration model parameters to each measurement.
3) Run Gaussian Process (GP) to fit residuals and find unmodeled systematic errors.
4) Produce histograms of the time-dependent parameters two minutes prior to the GPSTime requested.
5) Sample MCMC, GP posteriors, and time dependent histograms to produce a numerical uncertainty budget.

The first plot is the total uncertainty budget for all frequencies.  Also reported here is the extreme uncertainties for 10-2000 Hz and 2000-5000 Hz.  This plot is probably why you're here.


Other plots are:
 2,  3,  4,  5: The MCMC MAP fit (green) to the Jan 3rd, 2017 reference measurements (red dots), plus 1000 fit instances (grey). (2=Sensing, 3=UIM, 4=PUM, 5=TST)
 6,  7,  8,  9: The GP mean posterior (dark blue line) and 1 sigma uncertainty (light blue) and measurement residuals. (6=Sensing, 7=UIM, 8=PUM, 9=TST)
PDFs 1,  2,  3,  4: The MCMC parameter corner plots for each measurement. (1=Sensing, 2=UIM, 3=PUM, 4=TST)
PDF 5: The time-dependent parameter values and linear fit for two minutes of data, plus histograms. 
Sorry for the overwhelming number of plots.  This was requested by the calibration group.  Most people can safely ignore these.

Potential source of uncertainty not yet included:
1) Spring Frequency and Inverse Q systematic error + uncertainty
If these sources matter there will be a comment to this aLOG.

For the LLO total uncertainty budget, please see LLO aLOG 31111.